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The global economy grows exponentially, at about 3% a year, [1] consuming increasing amounts of non-renewable fuels, minerals and metals, [2] as well as renewable resources like water, forests, soils and fish faster than they can be replenished. [3]
Even at a growth rate of 1%, an economy will double in 70 years. [4]
The problem is intensified by other factors: Globalisation allows people on one continent to buy goods and food made by those on another. [5] The lines of supply are long, placing strains on a limited oil resource. [6] We now rely on distant countries for basic necessities. [7]
Modern cities are fossil fuel dependent.
Most Banking Systems are based on debt, forcing people into a spiral of loans or repayments - producing growth.
What can be done in the face of these problems?
Many believe that the crisis can be prevented through conservation, [8] technology, smart growth, [9] recycling, [10] electric cars and hybrids, [11] substitution, [12] or voting. [13]
Conservation will save you money, but it alone won't save the planet. If some people cut back on oil use, the reduced demand will drive down the price, allowing others to buy it for less. In the same fashion, a more efficient engine that uses less energy will, paradoxically, lead to greater energy use. In the 19th century, English economist William Stanley Jevons realised that Better steam engines made coal a more cost effective fuel source, which led to the use of more steam engines, which increased total coal consumption. [14] Growth of use will consume any energy or resources saved through conservation.
Many believe that scientists will solve these problems with new technology. However, technology is not energy. Technology can channel energy into work, but it can't replace it. [15] It also consumes resources: for instance; computers are made with one tenth of the energy needed to make a car. [16] More advanced technologies may make the situation worse, as many require rare minerals, which are also approaching limits. [17]
For example, 97% of the world's Rare Earths are produced by China, most from a single mine in inner Mongolia. These minerals are used in catalytic converters, aircraft engines, high efficiency magnets and hard drives, hybrid car batteries, lasers, portable X-Rays, shielding for nuclear reactors, compact discs, hybrid vehicle motors, low energy light-bulbs, fibre optics and flat-screen displays. China has begun to consider restricting the export of these minerals, as demand soars.
So called sustainable growth or smart growth won't help, as it also uses non renewable metals and minerals in ever increasing quantities, including Rare Earths. [18]
Recycling will not solve the problem, as it requires energy, and the process is not 100% efficient. It is only possible to reclaim a fraction of the material being recycled; a large portion is lost forever as waste. [19]
Electric cars run on electricity. As most power is generated from fossil fuels, this is not a solution. [20] Also, cars of all types consume oil in their production. Each tire alone requires about 7 gallons of Petroleum. There are around 800 million cars in the world, as of 2010. At current growth rates, this number would reach 2 billion by 2025. It is unlikely that the planet can support this many vehicles for long, regardless of their power source.
Many economists believe that the free market will substitute one energy source with another through technological innovation. [21] However, the main substitutes to oil face their own decline rates. [22] Substitution also fails to account for the time needed to prepare for a transition. The U.S. Department of Energy's Hirsch report estimates that at least 2 decades would be needed to prepare for the effects of Peak Oil. [23]
The issues of energy shortages, resource depletion, topsoil loss, and pollution are all symptoms of a single, larger problem: Growth. [24] As long as our financial system demands endless growth, reform is unlikely to succeed.
What then, will the future look like? Optimists believe that growth will continue forever, without limits. [25] Pessimists think that we're heading towards a new Stone Age, or extinction. [26] The truth may lie between these extremes. It is possible that society might fall back to a simpler state, one in which energy use is a lot less. [27] This would mean a harder life for most. More manual labour, more farm work, and local production of goods, food and services. [28]
What should a person do to prepare for such a possible future? Expect a decrease in supplies of food and goods from far away places. [29] Start walking or cycling. [30] Get used to using less electricity. [31] Get out of debt. [32] Try to avoid banks. [33] Instead of shopping at big box stores, support local businesses. [34] Buy food grown locally, at Farmers' Markets. [35] Instead of a lawn, consider gardening to grow your own food. [36] Learn how to preserve it. [37] Consider the use of local currencies should the larger economy cease to function,[38] and develop greater self sufficiency. [39]
None of these steps will prevent Collapse, but they might improve your chances in a low energy future, one in which we will have to be more self reliant, as our ancestors once were.
REFERENCES & EXTRA READING
[1] Economic Growth:
world economic growth, 1970-2007
global economic growth rates, developed and developing nations
[2] Consumption of non-renewable minerals and metals:
new scientist: earth's natural wealth - an audit
[3] Ogallala Aquifer:
ogallala aquifer map and information
the ogallala aquifer depletion
Forest Destruction:
net forest depletion by country
rainforest deforestation
palm oil leads to deforestation
roads are ruining the rainforests
biofuels boom could fuel rainforest destruction
photo gallery of rainforest destruction
Topsoil & Soil Erosion:
humans causing erosion comparable to world's largest rivers and glaciers
the relative efficacy of fluvial and glacial erosion over modern to orogenic timescales
land degradation maps of senegal
global assessment of human-induced soil degradation
global soil degradation
Fish Collapse:
estimated global fish landings 1950–1999
nature cover story - only 10% of all large fish are left in global ocean
the sixth extinction
[4] Exponential Doubling:
video: chris martenson on exponential economic growth
[5] Globalization:
defining globalization (a pro-globalization website)
[6] International Trade Oil Dependency:
will shipping fuel price hikes scuttle globalization?
shipping costs start to crimp globalization
[7] Manufacturing of Goods:
china poised to pass u.s. in manufactured goods exports
china to be top exporter of manufactured goods
[8] Conservation:
how to conserve energy at home
[9] Smart Growth / Sustainable Growth:
al bartlett: reflections on sustainability, population growth, and the environment
lindsey grant: on the edge of an oxymoron
gpf: earth on the market: beyond the limits of sustainable growth
richard heinberg: 5 axioms of sustainability
[10] Recycling:
recycling facts
[11] Electric Cars and Hybrids:
the peak oil crisis: the electric car: part II
[12] Substitution:
biophysical constraints to economic growth
[13] Voting:
carroll quigley, tragedy and hope
[14] Jevons' Parandox:
description of jevons' paradox
jevons' paradox and the myth of resource efficiency improvements
jevons' paradox and the “shadow” rebound effect
[15] Technology and Energy:
simmons-kunstler interview
making other arrangements
[16] Computer Manufacturing:
computer chip life cycle
[17] Rare Minerals:
new scientist: earth's natural wealth - an audit
john michael greer: the dawn of scarcity industrialism
marketwatch: rare earths are vital, and china owns them all
[18] Sustainable Growth and Resources:
al bartlett: reflections on sustainability, population growth, and the environment
lindsey grant: on the edge of an oxymoron
gpf: earth on the market: beyond the limits of sustainable growth
richard heinberg: 5 axioms of sustainability
[19]Recycling Efficiency:
wiki article on recycling
[20] Electric Cars:
eia - electric power industry 2007 year in review
electric cars and peak lithium
peak oil/electric+PHEVs/batteries
[21] Substitution Timelag:
richard heinberg: bridging peak oil and climate change activism
will the rate-of-conversion problem derail alternative energy?
[22] Alternative Fuels Decline Rates:
Coal reserves:
energybulletin.net/node/29919
energybulletin.net/node/28287
Quality and declining energy density of coal:
globalpublicmedia.com/museletter_194_coal_in_the_united_states
Peak Natural Gas:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_gas
peakoil.net/JL/JeanL.html
hubbertpeak.com/gas/
Conventional Natural Gas cliff:
theoildrum.com/story/2006/...
Global Uranium Reserves:
euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/u/uranium-reserves.htm
Uranium reserves (RED BOOK):
europe.theoildrum.com/node/5744
[23] Hirsch Report:
hirsch report back on the DOE website
hirsch report (PDF)
[24] Growth:
video: "arithmetic population & energy" by Al Bartlett (1 hour).
transcript: "arithmetic, population & energy"
[25] Singularity and Unlimited Growth:
singularity.com
[26] Die-off and the Coming Stone Age:
dieoff.org
[27] Collapse Theories:
dmitri orlov: post-soviet lessons for a post american century
dmitri orlov: thriving in the age of collapse
jason godesky: 30 theses of civilisation
jason godesky: collapse is inevitable
jason godesky: the slow crash
john michael greer: how civilisations fall: a theory of catabolic collapse
joseph tainter: complexity/conservation/collapse
matt savinar interview on collapse(from 2005)
richard heinberg interviewed on collapse (from 2004)
richard heinberg: timing and the post carbon manifesto
james howard kunstler: the yeast people (bad language alert)
udo bardi writes about the slow crash of ancient rome.
[28] Localization:
transition towns
vital links to localization resources, permaculture, etc.
[29] Discontinuity of International Trade:
are we entering an age of reverse-globalization?
jeff rubin: why your world Is about to get a whole lot smaller
salon: the peak oil vs. globalization smackdown (from 2006)
[30] Pedestrianism:
new urbanism and the design of walkable towns and cities
Cycling:
the finest bicycle ever made
Car Ownership:
costs of car ownership
carfree.com
[31] Saving Electricity:
michael bluejay - saving electricity
[32] Tackling Debt:
wiki article on simple living
simple living network
choosing voluntary simplicity
[33] Alternatives to Banking:
bankstrike - find alternatives to banks in your area
your financial future: bye-bye, megabank?
[34] Alternatives to Big Box Chain Stores:
big-box toolkit - how to resist big box chain stores
[35] Farmers' Markets:
find a farmers' market near you
[36] Alternatives to Lawns:
path to freedom: moving towards self sufficiency on 1/5th of an acre in los angeles
food, not lawns
book link: food, not lawns - convert your lawn into a food garden
[37] Food Preservation:
university of minnesota food preservation guide
[38] Local Currencies:
localcurrency.org.uk/html/local_currency.html
cnn.com/2009/.../printing.own.currency/index.html
huffingtonpost.com/.../communities-print-own-cur_n_183497.html
[39] Self Sufficiency:
path to freedom (living self sufficiently on 1/5th of an acre in LA).
book: john seymour: the self sufficient life and how to live it
book: where there is no doctor
book: where there is no doctor (free download)
book: where there is no dentist (free download, more up to date than printed version)
book: in the wake - aric mcbay on survival skills and health issues